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In this paper we propose a method of triangulating surveillance data with data collected in a pan-European MSM Internet Survey (EMIS) to estimate the sizes of the national MSM populations and the rates at which HIV is being diagnosed amongst them by calculating survey-surveillance discrepancies (SSD) as a measure of selection biases of survey participants.In 2010, the first EMIS collected self-reported data on HIV diagnoses among more than 180,000 MSM in 38 countries of Europe.In some cases, measurement errors may be due to small EMIS sample sizes.It must be assumed that the SSD is modified by country-specific factors.Some of our recent Mays have just been lousy for lack of a better term.Here is a summation of the last few Mays: May 2001 finished 2.1 degrees ABOVE average May 2002 finished 6.3 degrees BELOW average May 2003 finished 1.7 degrees BELOW average May 2004 finished 5.1 degrees BELOW average May 2005 finished 3.0 degrees BELOW average May 2006 so far is 4.0 degrees BELOW average At least 2006 still has a couple of weeks to improve, but if you’re a gardener, our early planting season hasn’t been very good the past few years. I’m sure many of you reading this will disagree, but we’re actually slightly below average so far this month and about 1 inch below average for the year.
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We discuss and identify possible measurement errors for countries with calculated MSM population sizes above 3% and below 1% of the adult male population.
In most cases the number of new HIV diagnoses in MSM in the surveillance system appears too low.